In a recent test of the Existing Mortgage Default Score, we looked at scores created for 1.4 million mortgages in December of 2013, and then at which loans actually defaulted over the next 10 months.

Cumulative results were as follows:

Model performance can also be shown using a lift curve. The graph below is for the highest-scored 3% of properties.

We believe these risk scores compare well against consumer credit risk scores, especially at the top end. Given the diversity of commercial properties, we’re pleased with this result — but we also are dedicated to continuous improvement.